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+--- Thread: Yet Another Probability Problem (/thread-6877.html)
RE: Yet Another Probability Problem - GISED_Link - 06-29-2015
Okay, let me trying something :
bet = p^k * c -> where p is the probability to win, k a constant and c the current fortune you play with. (p ^ k means p power k)
p = "nb of possible win" / "nb turn to play"
The idea : If you are sure to win (if you have lost 5 times), you will bet all your fortune. But it's really effective only if you have more than 1/2 of the start fortune !
You bet according to the probability to win. But the biggest idea, is the k factor. This factor is a "security" factor. if k > 1, it reduces the bet (p ^ k, p is always <=1). With this, you have always enough fortune to bet when you are "sure" to win. When you are sure to win (p = 1), you bet all your money and you double it
.Please look at the joined excel file, you will test by yourself my method.
- the best k factor, in my opinion, is e (2.718)
RE: Yet Another Probability Problem - jxu - 07-04-2015
Bet $1 until you have 5 losses then bet all your money and win
idk
RE: Yet Another Probability Problem - AltruismAndCake - 07-04-2015
Any objection to me declaring GISED_Link the winner? I don't have excel but I calculated some values with k=2 and it seems to work very VERY well. It would probably do even better if I used e (2.718) like he said. AFAIK his formula guarantees winnings, and is in one convenient formula as well.
RE: Yet Another Probability Problem - jxu - 07-04-2015
I object because mine is better probably
RE: Yet Another Probability Problem - slugdude - 07-04-2015
I object because I know I can calculate this.
However I an way too lazy for that, therefore you should declare me the winner because I CAN do it.
Because that's how it works. Totally.
RE: Yet Another Probability Problem - Apuly - 07-04-2015
I can crack quantum physics. I am physically capable of doing so. My brain is able to think of the solution on its own.
Therefor you most make me the winner of life and all that has ever existed.
You must make me a God amongst man.
Because I can.
RE: Yet Another Probability Problem - tokumei - 07-05-2015
Make me unix god. nao.
RE: Yet Another Probability Problem - Apuly - 07-05-2015
ur an god nao.
RE: Yet Another Probability Problem - AltruismAndCake - 07-06-2015
(07-04-2015, 11:01 PM)Apuly Wrote: I can crack quantum physics. *snip* Because I can.I though quantum physics says that you can and can't at the same time
(07-04-2015, 11:01 PM)Apuly Wrote: Therefor you most make me the winner of life and all that has ever existed.Is that how you spell therfore? Or are you so powerful, that you can change the spelling of a word at your whim?
Getting sidetracked ftw!
RE: Yet Another Probability Problem - Apuly - 07-06-2015
That's the power you get when you crack quantum physics.